第 4 节来源核实记录

核实日期：2026-09-07。出版社页面（Elsevier/Wiley/APA/Springer/T&F）对抓取工具普遍返回 403 或验证码，元数据改经 Crossref API、OpenAlex API、Semantic Scholar API、PubMed E-utilities 核实；摘要以这些 API 返回的原文为准。下面每条列出实际打开过的 URL、是否确认标题匹配、引用数字出处原文。

条目 1、2：Gollwitzer & Sheeran (2006)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1（302 → linkinghub.elsevier.com，正文页只返回 Redirecting）；https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1
标题匹配：是。Crossref：Implementation Intentions and Goal Achievement: A Meta-analysis of Effects and Processes，Advances in Experimental Social Psychology vol. 38, pp. 69–119, 2006
数字出处（Semantic Scholar 摘要原文）：“Findings from 94 independent tests showed that implementation intentions had a positive effect of medium-to-large magnitude (d = .65) on goal attainment. Implementation intentions were effective in promoting the initiation of goal striving, the shielding of ongoing goal pursuit from unwanted influences, disengagement from failing courses of action, and conservation of capability for future goal striving.”

条目 3：Arkes & Blumer (1985)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4（→ linkinghub 只返回 Redirecting）；https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4（标题、作者、期刊、年份确认，摘要为空）；https://www.sciencedirect.com（403/验证码）；https://r.jina.ai/https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e4564b88ca2349962a707b76be4c75076ad6bd43（摘要）；https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2796842/（引文页码 35, 124–140）
标题匹配：是。The psychology of sunk cost, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1985
数字出处：摘要原文 “In a field study, customers who had initially paid more for a season subscription to a theater series attended more plays during the next 6 months, presumably because of their higher sunk cost in the season tickets”。各组具体场次（如 4.11 场）未确认，条目中标为待核实、未写数字。

条目 3：Roth, Robbert & Straus (2015)

打开：https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1007/s40685-014-0014-8；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1007/s40685-014-0014-8
标题匹配：是。Business Research 8(1), 99–138
数字出处（摘要原文）：“a meta-analytic review of 98 effect sizes of the sunk-cost effect … the sunk-cost effect is attenuated by time in utilization decisions … older adults are less likely to fall prey to the sunk-cost effect than younger adults.”

条目 4、8：Buehler, Griffin & Ross (1994)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366（→ psycnet，403）；https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366（标题、期刊确认，含摘要）；全文 PDF https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366,_1994.pdf（本地 pdftotext 提取）
标题匹配：是。PDF 首页：Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1994, Vol. 67, No. 3, 366-381
数字出处（正文 Study 1）：“respondents predicted, on average, that they would finish in 33.9 days, but they actually took 55.5 days … Fewer than one third of the respondents (29.7%) finished in the time they reported as their most accurate prediction.”
数字出处（正文 Study 4）：“…in the recall-relevant condition (60.0%) than in the recall and control conditions (38.1% and 29.3%, respectively)”；“Note, n = 41, 42, and 40 in the control, recall, and recall-relevant conditions”；摘要：“In Study 4, the bias was eliminated for participants instructed to connect past experiences with their predictions.”
数字出处（正文 Study 2，条目 8）：“A subset of the subjects (n = 62) reported having external deadlines … a majority of these subjects (80.6%) finished the projects in time to meet their deadlines … only 38.7% of these subjects finished in the predicted time … their reported completion times were strongly associated with the deadlines (r = .82, p < .001)”；predictions 与 deadline 仅 r = .23。

条目 4：Flyvbjerg (2006)

打开：https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1177/875697280603700302；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1177/875697280603700302
标题匹配：是。Project Management Journal 37(3), 5–15
引用内容（摘要原文）：“reference class forecasting, which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects”。条目未引用其数字。

条目 4：Halkjelsvik & Jørgensen (2012)

打开：https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1037/a0025996（摘要）；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1037/a0025996（Psychological Bulletin 138(2), 238–271, 2012）
标题匹配：是
引用内容：OpenAlex 摘要“underestimation occurred more frequently than overestimation, though this pattern varied by study type”（工具复述，非逐字）。条目只用定性结论。

条目 5：Leach, Rogelberg, Warr & Burnfield (2009)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1007/s10869-009-9092-6（→ Springer idp 跳转，无法读）；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1007/s10869-009-9092-6（J Bus Psychol 24(1), 65–76）；https://r.jina.ai/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10869-009-9092-6（摘要）
标题匹配：是
数字出处（摘要）：“The aim of this investigation was to test hypotheses about meeting design characteristics (punctuality, chairperson, etc.) in relation to attendees' perceptions of meeting effectiveness”；两项研究样本 958 与 292；“agenda use and quality of facilities” 为显著预测因子。

条目 5：Bluedorn, Turban & Love (1999)

打开：https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1037/0021-9010.84.2.277
标题匹配：是。Journal of Applied Psychology, 1999
数字出处（摘要原文）：“56 five-member groups that conducted meetings in a standing format with 55 five-member groups that conducted meetings in a seated format. Sit-down meetings were 34% longer than stand-up meetings, but they produced no better decisions”

条目 6：Rogelberg, Leach, Warr & Burnfield (2006)

打开：https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16435940/（cookie 页，无内容）；https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/efetch.fcgi?db=pubmed&id=16435940,28739889,17201571&rettype=abstract&retmode=text
标题匹配：是。“Not another meeting!” Are meeting time demands related to employee well-being? J Appl Psychol 2006; DOI 10.1037/0021-9010.91.1.83
数字出处（摘要）：Study 1 n = 676（典型一周的会议），Study 2 n = 304（当天会议），员工每周工作 35 小时以上；“the relationship between meeting time demands and JAWB was moderated by task interdependence, meeting experience quality, and accomplishment striving”

条目 6：Luong & Rogelberg (2005)

打开：https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1037/1089-2699.9.1.58
标题匹配：是。Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice, 2005
引用内容（摘要）：一周日记研究，HLM 分析，“statistically significant positive correlation between the quantity of meetings attended and daily fatigue, along with perceptions of subjective workload”（工具复述）。条目未引用具体系数。

条目 7：Kruger & Evans (2004)

打开：https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1016/j.jesp.2003.11.001（J Exp Soc Psychol 40(5), 586–598, 2004；无摘要）；https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2003.11.001（无摘要）；https://r.jina.ai/https://www.sciencedirect.com/...（验证码）；https://r.jina.ai/https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/67aa82059dafc832f93ad73057fc061ba1487823（摘要片段）
标题匹配：是
引用内容（摘要原文）：“People tend to underestimate how long it will take to complete tasks. We suggest that one reason people commit this planning fallacy is that they do not naturally 'unpack' multifaceted tasks (e.g., writing a manuscript) into subcomponents … when making predictions.” 具体实验百分比未确认，条目未写数字。

条目 7：Steel (2007)

打开：上述 efetch URL；https://eutils.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/efetch.fcgi?db=pubmed&id=17201571&rettype=abstract&retmode=text
标题匹配：是。The nature of procrastination: a meta-analytic and theoretical review of quintessential self-regulatory failure. Psychological Bulletin 2007; DOI 10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.65
数字出处（摘要）：“691 correlations”；“Strong and consistent predictors of procrastination were task aversiveness, task delay, self-efficacy, and impulsiveness, as well as conscientiousness and its facets”。常被引用的“80%–95% 大学生拖延”不在摘要中，条目未使用。

条目 9：Whillans et al. (2017)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706541114（→ pnas.org，403）；上述 efetch URL（PMID 28739889）
标题匹配：是。Buying time promotes happiness. PNAS 2017
数字出处（摘要）：“diverse samples (n=6,271) from four countries … individuals who spend money on time-saving services report greater life satisfaction … working adults report greater happiness after spending money on a time-saving purchase than on a material purchase”

条目 9、10、13：国家统计局第三次全国时间利用调查公报（2024-10-31）

打开：https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202410/t20241031_1957216.html（第二号）；https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202410/t20241031_1957215.html（第三号）；https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202410/t20241031_1957217.html（第一号）
标题匹配：是
数字出处（第二号原文）：“互联网使用居民每日平均时间为5小时37分钟，参与者每日平均时间为6小时3分钟，活动参与率为92.9%。”“交通活动领域，居民每日平均时间为50分钟，占全天的3.5%；参与者每日平均时间为1小时2分钟，活动参与率为80.5%。”“家务劳动活动居民每日平均时间为1小时17分钟，参与者每日平均时间为1小时59分钟，活动参与率为64.9%。”
样本（第一号原文）：“全国共调查3.85万户家庭、10.7万人”
第二号页面内不含“2018”字样，与 2018 年的对比由我自行对照 2018 年公报得出。

条目 10、11：国家统计局 2018年全国时间利用调查公报（2019-01-25）

打开：https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202302/t20230203_1900224.html
标题匹配：是
数字出处（原文）：“居民看电视的平均时间为1小时40分钟”；“居民使用互联网的平均时间为2小时42分钟”；样本“共抽样调查20226户48580人”；“按10岁为组距分组，75-84岁居民看电视的平均时间最长，为3小时16分钟；15-24岁居民时间最短，为42分钟。”（第二次抓取逐字确认）

条目 11：BLS American Time Use Survey — 2025 Results

打开：https://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm（两次）
标题匹配：是。“American Time Use Survey Summary”，“For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, June 25, 2026”
数字出处（原文）：“Watching TV was the leisure and sports activity that occupied the most time (2.6 hours per day), accounting for half of all leisure time, on average (5.2 hours).”

条目 12：Lane, Napier, Peres & Sándor (2005)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327590ijhc1802_1（→ tandfonline，403）；https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1207/s15327590ijhc1802_1；https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1207/s15327590ijhc1802_1；https://r.jina.ai/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1207/s15327590ijhc1802_1（完整摘要）
标题匹配：是。International Journal of Human–Computer Interaction, 2005
数字出处（摘要原文）：“251 experienced users of Microsoft Word were given a questionnaire … most experienced users rarely used the efficient keyboard shortcuts, favoring the use of icon toolbars instead … Six participants performed common commands using menu selection, icon toolbars, and keyboard shortcuts. The keyboard shortcuts were, as expected, the most efficient.”

条目 13：Stutzer & Frey (2008)

打开：https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00542.x（→ Wiley，403/验证码）；https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00542.x（摘要）；https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00542.x（Scandinavian Journal of Economics 110(2): 339–366）
标题匹配：是。Stress that Doesn't Pay: The Commuting Paradox
引用内容（摘要原文）：“we find that people with longer commuting time report systematically lower subjective well-being. Additional empirical analyses do not find institutional explanations of the empirical results that commuters systematically incur losses.” 常被转述的“单程一小时需加薪 40% 补偿”不在摘要中，条目未使用。

条目 13：Chatterjee et al. (2020)

打开：https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1080/01441647.2019.1649317（完整摘要）；https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1080/01441647.2019.1649317（Transport Reviews 40(1), 5–34，在线 2019、印刷 2020）
标题匹配：是
引用内容（摘要原文）：“Satisfaction decreases with duration of commute, regardless of mode used … However, a consistent link between commuting and life satisfaction overall has not been established. The evidence suggests that commuters are generally successful in trading off the drawbacks of longer and more arduous commute journeys against the benefits they bring”

未确认：CNNIC 第55次 / 第56次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》

打开：https://www.cnnic.net.cn/NMediaFile/2025/0220/MAIN1740036167004CKE0DITFO1.pdf 与 https://www.cnnic.net.cn/NMediaFile/2025/0730/MAIN1753846666507QEK67ZS9DH.pdf（PDF 下载成功，但字体无 ToUnicode 映射，pdftotext 提取不出任何中文，本机无 OCR 工具）；https://www.cnnic.net.cn/n4/2025/0117/c88-11229.html 与 https://www.cnnic.net.cn/n4/2025/0721/c88-11328.html（发布页只有网民规模 11.08 亿/11.23 亿、普及率 78.6%/79.7%、微短剧用户 6.62 亿，没有每周上网时长和短视频用户规模）；https://www.cnnic.net.cn/6/132/（只是目录）
结论：未确认。搜索结果中出现的“人均每周上网 28.7 小时（2024-12）”“短视频用户 10.68 亿、占网民 95.1%（2025-06）”均来自二手转载，条目 10 来源栏标 TODO，未写这些数字。

其他打开过但未采用的页面

https://api.unpaywall.org/v2/...（422，未取到 OA 副本）
Kahneman & Tversky (1979) Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures，TIMS Studies in Management Science 12, 313–327：搜索未找到 DOI 或官方全文，条目 4 改用 Buehler 1994 与 Flyvbjerg 2006 作为参考类预测的原始文献，未直接引用。